Predictions and forecasting errors
Author: P. Fernando Pascual, L.C | Source: Catholic.net
In books, articles, TV or YouTube programs, conversations between friends, we find forecasts and predictions about the future.
"In X years will start a war between these two countries. In a short time there will be a crisis of the banks in our country. Soon people will leave this social network to move on to another. "
Time gives reason or denies many forecasts. In the second case, some look for why the forecasts were not fulfilled. What were the causes of your mistakes
Without being exhaustive, fundamentally there are two large groups of causes of these errors: the first group arises by failures when collecting and elaborating the data. The second is explained by the unpredictability of human or other factors.
On the first group, a "previewer" that is wrong in the numbers, which leaves aside other relevant data, which connects them in a wrong way, surely will come to the wrong conclusions: their forecasts could only be realized in the future by chance...
On the second group, neither the best analysts, historians, economists, politicians, philosophers, are able to encompass all the unpredictable factors that intervene in this complex and mysterious human march that writes, day by day, history.
As a more concrete example, it is worth noting how for some analysts of the moment the peace signed at Versailles in 1919 would have been sufficient to ensure concord among the most powerful countries in Europe, when just 20 years later the second World War, much more dreadful than the first.
Some will say that, then, it would be better not to make analyses or projections into the future. But with all its limits, the forecasts have their usefulness if they are well done. Because with a good foresight, for example, about the future lack of food by human and commercial factors in a given territory, they can now plan solutions in the medium and long term.
The world in which we live is fraught with uncertainty, some of which are explained by the lack of predictability of certain natural facts (such as an earthquake), others that are the consequence of the changing decisions of free human beings and, sometimes, unable to Use your intelligence well.
Beyond all the future unknowns among which we walk day by day, there is a god who knows the heart of every human being, who offers hope in very difficult situations, and that invites all to give the best of themselves to help and to accompany those who can be seen Affected by accidents and dramas that even the best analysts in the world will be able to collect in their forecasts...